According to a study performed by the University of Northumbria of the United Kingdom, Earth’s northern hemisphere should be experiencing a mini ice age in the next 15 years. However, new research shows that this may not be the case after all. This could just be a case of confusing causation with correlation, but that doesn’t forgive the phenomenal ‘news’ being released without confirmation, and having the claim refuted mere days later.
The Original Mini Ice Age Claim
The claim of the new mini ice age first came about after the UK’s National Astronomy Meeting suggested that the sun may have a period of significantly lowered output. This is not a new claim.
Solar activity fluctuations have been recorded for more than 150 years. The activity of sun spots on the sun infer how much solar activity there will be in the coming years. Because research showed that there was going to be a time of lessened solar activity, similar to that of the Little Ice Age of the 17th century, some scientists inferred that this meant there is going to be another mini ice age.
Because of the correlation of the low activity of the sun and the Little Ice Age, it is reasonable to see how one could arise at the conclusion of an impending mini ice age. On the other hand, even basic science classes teach us that correlation does not equal causation.
Why The Ice Age Claim is Wrong
The lowered amount of solar activity in the 1600’s is referred to as the Maunder Minimum. The Maunder Minimum was a period of time where the sunspots were at their lowest in number, appearing as only around 50 as opposed to their current average of 40,000 to 50,000 over a course of 30 years. This decrease in sunspots happened approximately the same time as the Little Ice Age, however, the ice age started nearly a century before the Maunder Minimum occurred and lasted long after it ended.
Solar Change and the Effects on Earth
That’s not to say that links between solar activity and Earth’s climate don’t exist, however; they clearly do. There are just other factors that may be more influential. For example, the amount of power the sun produces, or solar irradiance, is reduced by only 0.1% during this time of less frequent sunspots. However, the amount of ultraviolet output over a solar cycle can deposit energy in our stratosphere that is a direct causation of colder winters in Europe at least.
Essentially, if the sun is going to be having more Maunder Minimum conditions, and that truly is a big ‘if’, then that doesn’t mean a mini ice age is inevitable. While the lack of sunspots had an effect on the Little Ice Age, it could be attributed more to increased volcanic activity that was going on at the time. In other words, there’s nothing to be worried about as a mini ice age in the next 15 to 25 years is incredibly unlikely.
