Researchers from both the Taskforce on Extreme Weather and the Global Food System Resilience have predicted much more frequent and severe food shortages to occur worldwide by the end of the century, based on a new study published by a joint US/UK team of scientists. According to the report, by 2040 the number of food shortages worldwide will increase dramatically, with their causes ranging from climate change, to an exponential increase in the global population, putting poor and developing countries at higher risk of starvation.
Food Shocks
According to Tim Benton, the UK’s Global Food Security Champion, the world will soon be experiencing more “food shocks” than ever before—periods of time when crops fail to grow, due to extreme weather conditions such as droughts, floods and heat waves.
Researchers from the joint US/UK team have recently analyzed new information in order to predict the future severity and frequency of these food shortages, and yielded some pretty shocking results. Whereas we currently experience these worldwide food shocks about one in every 100 years, new analyses suggest that by 2040 we will experience one in every 30. What’s more? The same report suggests that we will experience “severe” food shocks—times when crop production falls by at least 20%–will occur every seven out of ten years by 2070.
https://youtu.be/r0lhgRz8IjY
Will this Affect You?
Leading authors of the report predict agriculture industries in North and South America as well as Asia—the three largest producers of corn, soy, wheat and rice in the world–to be greatly affected by these food shocks. The drop in crop production and exportation will in turn drastically increase the price of food in poor and developing countries such as those in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, which heavily rely on importing these crops to survive. Experts agree that such a dramatic rise in prices could lead to civil unrest and rebellion in these nations.
However, those living in wealthier nations, such as the UK and the US will be much less likely to feel the effects of these food shortages, as researchers agree that the increased prices won’t affect those in countries where so much excess food is produced. Those that will feel it, especially in Africa and the Middle East, will have to face food prices close to double their original value, with nearly half of their income spent solely on food alone.
Under Pressure(s)
According to the UK’s Global Food Security, food shortages will become much more frequent and severe due largely to climate change, among other factors. Increasing global temperatures have already sparked dramatic changes in weather patterns worldwide, with just last year recorded as the hottest year on record. According to the report, this pattern is only expected to continue, producing more frequent and severe weather conditions that are predicted to result in worldwide floods, droughts and heat waves in the future.
Adding to this problem are a myriad of others, including increased demand for food worldwide. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has predicted a population increase from the current 7.3 billion, to 9 billion by 2050, calling for a 60% increase in demand for food.
Experts are reaching out to agricultural industries and government officials, asking them to withhold from placing export restrictions on food, despite any drops in food production, so as not to raise the price of food for those in poor and developing countries. They are also calling for an end to the use of biofuel—the production of which involves taking land that would have been used for food production, and instead using it to produce fuel, which hurts countries which already don’t produce as much food as they need themselves.
