In a new study, researchers have discovered that there is a small risk for grey swan superstorms forming in tropical regions, which could potentially pose a great threat to certain cities, Reuters Africa reports. And though the odds of them occurring are low, they will increase with climate change.
WHAT IS A GREY SWAN?
Although “grey swans” are extremely rare (hence the nickname), predicting them is possible to do with computer models. The entire study was published in the Nature Climate Change journal.
Ning Lin of Princeton University, the study’s lead author, told Reuters that the probability of the cyclones existing “is very low but … if you build a nuclear power plant you have to consider these things.”
According to Reuters, the closest that a cyclone has ever come to the Persian Gulf is when Cyclone Gonu hit Iran and Oman from the Arabian Sea. The storm killed 78 people and caused massive infrastructural damage.
Some experts think similar and possibly more severe events will occur in the future. “Bad climate surprises may happen,” Jean-Pascal van Ypersele of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change told Reuters.
UNPRECEDENTED DESTRUCTION
The study estimates that the grey swan, with 250 mph winds and other features, would be more destructive than any storm ever witnessed by humans. As The Verge pointed out, the superstorm’s surge could be up to 36 feet in Tampa and 23 feet in Dubai.
WHAT A GREY SWAN COULD TO DO TAMPA
In an excellent analysis of the study, Chris Mooney of The Washington Post pointed out that Tampa Bay is a particularly vulnerable area for geographic reasons. The bay is unprotected by islands that would absorb some of a storm’s blows. Though it was last hit by a huge hurricane in 1921, the large-scale devastation caused by that storm indicates that if hit by a grey swan, the area’s ruins would be particularly extreme.
THE ODDS OF THE STORM OCCURRING
Mooney noted that though the study found the chances of a grey swan occurring to be quite low (“less than 1 in 10,000 years for the 5.9-meter surge in the current climate”), the present trajectory of climate change will raise the odds.
