New studies connect climate change, rising temperatures, to an increased risk of death particularly among seniors and low-income households.
What’s more deadly overall for people, however, are variable temperatures.
As temperature and precipitation patterns change, the delicate balance of climate, weather events and life is disrupted, researchers found. If many argue that climate change is one of the most serious public health threats facing the world, weighing the risk to our wellbeing is not as straightforward as one might think. “This makes understanding the direct effects of a changing climate on human health more urgent,” researchers in New England said.
Is climate change a serious threat to human health?
Earlier studies coupled with news reports during heat waves, indicated there was an association between short-term changes in temperature and increases in death rates.
In May 2015, India was struck by a severe heat wave which in a couple of weeks caused the death of more than 2,500 people across the country. Similarly, last month, the death toll from a heat wave in Pakistan’s southern Sindh province passed 800, with mortuaries reaching capacity.
Experts believe that high death rates could be attributed, not only to rising temperatures, but also to the fact that fewer people in New Delhi or Lahore have access to electricity or healthcare.
According to the New York Times, although this makes drawing broad conclusions tricky, it does not mean the risks are not there. As Dr Kinney noted, “If we wait for the health evidence to be ironclad, it may well be too late.”
This isn’t just a developing world problem. “We don’t acclimate to temperature very fast”, researcher Liuhua Shi, an expert in environmental health and researcher at Harvard University’s School of Public Health, explained.
Study geographically limited to New England
Researchers launched an analysis in New England with the intention of better understanding the correlation between variable weather and an increase in death rates. Here summers are getting hotter and winters colder. According to the study, increases in standard deviations of temperature for both summer and winter were harmful, for senior citizens (aged 65+) in particular.
If during the winter, warmer-than-average temperatures led to lower death rate, that was not enough to compensate for the higher number of deaths caused by extreme heat waves. “For future climate scenarios, seasonal mean temperatures may in part account for the public health burden, but the excess public health risk of climate change may also stem from changes of within-season temperature variability,” researchers said.
Climate change at local level
Similarly, a team of researchers in New York City studied vulnerability patterns and corresponding adaptation strategies at a local level. “Mortality during heat waves varies widely within a city. Understanding which individuals and neighbourhoods are most vulnerable can help guide local preparedness efforts,” they said.
Although they did not find that elderly are more susceptible to heat-related mortality, researchers found that that New Yorkers who died after heat waves were more likely to live in neighbourhoods where more residents used public assistance. They mostly died at home, rather than at public places which would presumably have air conditioning and were more likely to be black than any other race.
Researchers urged local administrations to invest in awareness campaigns, plant lawns and trees as well as providing electricity or air conditioning during heat waves to neighbourhoods that need them most.
A first step
Although these studies represent “a first step” in looking at whether climate changes can be connected to higher death rates in the US and elsewhere, findings nevertheless suggest, that changes in climate may be affecting our health in ways scientists are beginning to explore. Although more studies are needed, a researcher said: “The big mysteries concern our adaptability to a changing climate.”
How can we protect ourselves from extreme temperatures? Have you heard of awareness campaigns or initiatives that work?
